The Pro-Trump Riots & Trump in 2024

Capitol Hill Riot

By: T. Jeffersonian

Intense polarized responses ring throughout the United States this week because the Pro-Trump Rally breeched the United States Capitol while the 2020 Electoral College voting was being certified.  President Trump’s Tweets and speech encouraged the Rally to march to the Capitol and show their “appreciation” to Congress.  The Rally marched to the Capitol, breeched security, and entered the building.

The building, the U.S. Capitol, is Federal property.  Federal property belongs to every United States citizen.  United States citizens pay taxes that upkeep and safeguard our communal property.   Citizens cast votes which elect government officials to safeguard and protect our property.  Because Mitch McConnell. Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer have worked from the Capitol for decades does not give them one ounce of ownership more than a single U.S. citizen who has never set one foot in the Capitol. The Capitol belongs to us all, and we all have a right to be there peacefully despite our political differences.  None of us have a right to destroy the property and prevent its use and enjoyment by our fellow citizens.

Our fellow citizens from the left condemn the violence as a coup, as sedition, and as yet another impeachable offense by President Trump for allegedly inciting the violence.  Our fellow citizens on the right, hope that the rioters might tar and feather Democratic leaders within the Capitol and ride them out on poles.  It was sad day for all citizens, despite our political beliefs, for Confederate battle flags to parade through the Capitol.  From 1861-1865, American service men and women died by the thousands to preserve the Union.  Though the Pro-Trump Rally was not a coup and was not an insurrection meant to overthrow the U.S. government, the marching of such symbol of hate and division through our house was an enraging disappointment.  As President Lincoln warned through use of a well-known Bible passage, “A divided house cannot stand”.  America is far from a divided house despite sensationalized rhetoric on both sides and despite the sensationalized media reports meant deliberately to sway voters to one side or another.

Michelle Obama was a great First Lady; however, she used sensationalized rhetoric.  She said that “we all know what would have happened if the protestors had been black”.  Michelle insinuated that black protestors breeching the Capitol would have dealt with much more harshly.  I disagree with Michelle Obama.  There were 2,400 Black Lives Matter protests in the United States throughout the summer 2020.  These protests were not dealt with harshly.  The harsh realities of the United States past, where Civil Rights protests were dealt with violently, are not in the United States present nor our future.  The ruling elite from the Baby Boomer Generation and Generation X are simply not in touch the thoughtful and inclusive beliefs associated the Millennials or more cynical beliefs associated with Generation Z.   The ruling class elite, especially those already out of politics, but who wrestle to preserve their continued political relevancy, their legacies, and to increase their personal wealth will sensationalize politics as a weapon to invigorate their brand recognition.  Barrack Obama just released a book and the Obamas have a media production company.  Remaining in the press, increases their business profitability and keeps them politically relevant.

President Trump today, while condemning the Protests and calling for national unity, indicated that he took intends to remain politically relevant when he told his supporters that “their journey has just begun”.  It remains to be sent if this journey yields 2020 rematch in 2024, but many speculate such a rematch is likely.  Many Grand Old Party (GOP) leaders today would say that President Trump does not have a chance in 2024.  Because of the Capitol Riots, cabinet secretaries have resigned, and former Trump cabinet members have condemned the President.  There are even reports that Vice President Pence is furious with President Trump.  Vice President Pence and other high ranking GOP leaders and former cabinet secretaries all could be potential Presidential candidates in 2024.  These potential candidates are keen to draw a distinction between themselves and between President Trump, whom they currently have cause to view as a failure. 

Was Trump really a failure or did he govern in a such a novel way as to simply be ahead of its time and not acceptable amongst the established political elite in Washington DC?  The answer is probably a little bit of both.  Trump made one big mistake on Election Day, which was to encourage his supporters to vote in person on one day.  He lost votes because he emphasized a mere 24 hours of daylight.  Democrats on the other hand emphasized voting for months ahead of the election and then for days after the election was over.  Republicans who want to win the White House must also emphasize mass voting across a length of time.  Volume voting across an expanse of time wins; point voting has a higher probability of loss.

Volume voting across an expanse of time must also focus on mobilizing the majority of the United States population.  The majority of the United States population are non-Hispanic whites who make up around 60 percent of the population.  Hispanics follow whites at 18 percent, with the next largest group being Blacks at 12 percent.  Hispanic and Blacks together equate to half the white population.  All racial demographics break down into 51 percent women and 49 percent men.  White women followed by white men, who make up the vast majority of the United States population, should be the first mobilization priority in volume voting.  Generation Xers, who make up 40 percent of the United States population, and whom are regarded as the hardest working generation, should be focus demographic to mobile, and impetus for their motivation should be economic.  In 2024, the party that focuses nationally on mobilizing Generation X white women and white men concerned about improving their economic wealth, to vote across an extended expanse of time, will very likely win the election.  The party that wins in 2024, should not disregard Hispanics and Blacks.  Every vote counts equally, but more votes count the most and besides, America will not be predominantly white at the end of the next 80 years. Winning the elections 80 years from now, begins today.

Donald Trump may be beginning his 2024 campaign journey today, but whether he becomes the 21st Century version of Grover Cleveland, a twice elected non-consecutive terms President, remains to be seen.  For Trump to win in 2024, will take sustained personal rebranding in order for him to appeal to the majority of voters.  There is a Black Swan lurking which may prevent Trump’s rebranding effort and his broader appeal.  The lurking Black Swan is whether or not the Biden administration succeeds in ending the pandemic, restoring the nation to normalcy, and preparing the nation for the next pandemic.  There will be another.  Another Swan, this one a White Swan, will be the fact that Trump will be 76 years old in 2024, if he runs again.